February 9, 2010

Trading With Darvas Ghost Boxes

Modern Darvas also uses a technique called ghost boxes to handle some other aspects of modern volatility. In Darvas’ time, stock market rallies that drove up the price rapidly were rare. However, in modern times, news of breakout stocks travels much faster, leading to higher volumes of trades in shorter periods of time.

Ghost boxes are used when a stock will break out of a box and not form another box for some time. The danger here is that the Darvas method dictates that a stock should be bought when it breaks out of its box and the stop-loss order should be set at the bottom of the box. But if no valid Darvas box forms for some time after the stock breaks out and continues to rise, there is the potential that a trader could lose a great deal of profit. Darvas was very strict about moving his stop-loss orders. He felt that the box method should be the only influence that set the stop-loss orders. However, Darvas’ method needs to be adapted slightly to account for today’s rapidly moving markets.

The response to this modern market tendency is to use what is known as a ghost box (we’ll call it GB from here on in). The first issue to consider when using a GB is to decide whether or not the conditions are right to apply one. It is important to be confident that the stock is going to continue the Darvas trend. Although if a trader is wrong and applies a GB, this will still help to preserve his profits.

A GB is implemented by first measuring the height of the initial Darvas box. Then, a GB is formed that is the same height, and the bottom corner is applied to the top of the initial box. Once this is accomplished, the stop-loss order is updated to be the bottom of the GB.

The GB is simply a means of applying the most recently confirmed volatility range to a stock. In modern markets, stocks will often rally unexpectedly as a result of breaking news or instability in certain parts of the world. The job of the GB is to ensure that a sudden rally and recession does not leave the trader caught unprepared. One of the advantages of the Darvas method is that it requires minimal management under all circumstances. The GB uarantees that even while there is no valid Darvas box to guide the stop-loss order the trader’s profit will be protected.

If a rally happens when no valid Darvas box forms, a GB that raises the stop-loss as the stock rises is a reasonable solution. The height of the GB should be the same as the height of the last valid Darvas box. As the price continues to rise, the trader can continue to stack the ghost boxes. Of course, the same rules that apply to the Modern Darvas boxes apply to ghost boxes.

Looking to get more information on Nicholas Darvas? Visit www.darvassecrets.com today.

Filed under Finances by Frank Mariano

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January 28, 2010

Understanding Investment Risk

When investment market is not working for you, the amount of money you may lose in one particular investment event is what we call risk. When represent risk with an R index number. We identify the possible worst situation and the worst loss that can happen when the item did not progress according to our plan. When you start estimating the amount of risk, the R, you bear in an investment item, you are focusing on the return to risk ratio. Perhaps you are already doing the same in other aspects of your life and now is the time to apply it to money.

We are constantly making choices in our lives. From little decisions of choosing which restaurant to eat to biggest decisions like choosing who to marry, you have already developed a set of skills to make up your mind. An example is the way to get home. There is a high way or you can take the street. If you go with the high way and if you are lucky, you may be able to arrive home within 30 minutes. But the possibility exists that there is a traffic accident on the road and the traffic jam may trap you for 2 more hours. The alternative is to take the street full of traffic lights. There are fewer cars and you would need 45 minutes despite the traffic.

You may consider the benefit of getting home quicker and the risk of being trapped in traffic accidents to come up with your final decision. The same thinking process can be used in investment. We consider the potential return and the possible loss and see if the ratio between the two is meaningful.

The best investors use this return to risk ratio to assess their investment opportunities. A seasoned professional investor would always start an investment consideration with the possible amount of money he could lose in a particular investment. And we denote the amount by R. Let say the expected return is 3 times of the risk you bear, we say this is a 3R opportunity. Whether we are talking about stock, mutual fund, property or any other investment vehicle, we use this same system to categorize them. The assets are just the tools. What we concern is the money. So a 2R in stock market is in substance the same as a 2R in the property market. They all mean an opportunity to earn twice the amount of money you may lose. The below example would make it clear.

The first example is the situation where you have already decided to buy a house with a compromised price and sell it quickly thereafter. This is a quick cash transaction. You have decided to use USD5000 to buy a USD80 000 house. The amount USD5000 is the risk factor R which is the largest amount you can bear to lose. You wish to sell the house with a USD100 000 price. That is, a USD20 000 profit. This will be a 4R opportunity, because your planned profit is 4 times of the risk you bear.

Perhaps your prediction was too optimistic and the best price you could get someone to buy is $90,000. The profit becomes $10,000 and it becomes a 2R investment because the amount you earn is 2 times the amount you risked.

Learn more about investment, visit: forex trading system

Filed under Finances by Andrew Wong

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December 6, 2009

Red Flags To Look For Prior To Choosing A Forex Signal Provider

There are some red flags that should be easy to spot that will help you to protect your forex account. Many of the traders available as third party signal providers look good for a few weeks, or even months, but are really just ticking time bombs. Don’t be around when the timer stops.

This article is intended to highlight a few things to look for and avoid. It is in no way intended to cover every problem that traders may or may not have. Now, what to look for:

Stopless Trading

Avoid any and all traders without stops. The trader may look fine but there are uncontrollable factors that are lurking that you cannot avoid. Factors such as power outages or connection failures can effect you because the market runs fast and far on incoming news. You must avoid this type of trader like the plague. It is the first pitfall that a trader learns to steer clear of.

Win Sizes Out of Proportion to Losses

When a good trader is looking at a loser he may get agitated and pull profits off the trading bench with an unexpected early move. This is good. You certainly want to cut your losses in order to expand your wins, and this ploy should result in more wins than losses. The trader though who has a disproportionate win/loss ratio on his books, i.e. 200 losses, 10 wins, is not the trader for you. Do your research.

New Guys on the Block

These are not actually red flag traders but you should still avoid them. Any trader with only a few weeks worth of records should not be traded on a live account. You can absolutely run them on a demo for a month and take a look at the results, but if the trader is worth trading, they will still be there in 6 months. And by then you’ll have a much better idea of who you’re dealing with.

Big Winnings Following a Draw Down

Traders who have abnormally big winners at the end of a sizable draw down have usually given up and are taking one last shot. Their account recovers and to the untrained eye it looks like a solid winning trader. For every 10 traders that try this maybe 2 will survive and bounce back. This means that those 2 are floating around waiting for you. When they have their next draw down they will likely try the same “hail mary” play and the results may not be so favorable. Don’t let someone trade your money on a wing and a prayer.

There are obviously many more tell tale signs that a trader should be avoided and this article is only intended to get you started.

To learn more about 3rd party signal providers visit Automated Forex Trading Systems.

Filed under Finances by Tk Kearns

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November 9, 2009

Some Excellent Tips on Day Trading For a Living

Have you considered taking up day trading and doing it for your living? If this has crossed your mind, then you’ve probably thought up a great reason for doing so. There is much more to life than having all the money in the world, but having money will save you a considerable amount of money in the long run, which makes it well worth it to have some.

Money is one of the biggest motivations for individuals running to the day trading world. Naturally there are many things that need to be done, obstacles to be averted. As you’ve probably guessed, there have been many people who succeed, and there are a number of things that they did to achieve success. Based on that, there are a few tips that you can use to make yourself successful.

First off, you are going to need to ensure that you employ the services of a decent robot trading program. You might be tempted to just jump in head first, but you will no doubt lose money. Having a robot help you along the way, and showing you the best way to make a trade is how you will turn a profit when you want to day trade for a living.

Make sure you examine everything that you have done. That means every single trade! It doesn’t matter if it was a successful trade or an unsuccessful one, examining it will help you out. By determining where you went wrong, you will figure out how you can go right next time, which could make all the difference in the world.

Reviewing your trades will help dramatically in this regard. Look for common trends and see if you can duplicate the successful ones. Yes, this can be a lot of work but the rewards make it worth it.

From this, you may be able to develop a specific system which you can employ for day trading for a living. Devising a system is certainly a better option than wandering aimlessly among your many trades. A little cohesion will be needed to make your trading ventures work. Hence, devising and sticking with a system is recommended. It increases the chances of future success because the process becomes a manageable one.

Don’t make a trade because you feel you are obligated to do so. Make a trade when you feel that it is the right move to make. Do not assume that you have to make a trade everyday. Such an approach is not a good one when you hope for a lengthy career day trading for a living.

If you find that you are losing money, then ensure that you find a way to decrease your losses. You don’t want to gamble and try to get back the money that you’ve lost. If you’re smart about it, then you’ll find that you have more success and you will have a better day trading career.

Ensure that you don’t spend all of your time trying to change things that are out of your control. Something you will need to accept is the fact that the market is always going to change, and things will go in ways that you don’t want them to.

It’s not going to be easy, and it will require a lot of learning. By absorbing as much knowledge as possible, you’ll be a step ahead and you’ll be able to do things the way you’re supposed to. Learning is not optional when you are day trading for a living!

Tired of scraping by at your day job? Why not get into the stock market and make some real money the smart way… with the guidance of artificial intelligence! More info about day trading for living… Also check the very best stock picking software.

Filed under Finances by Peter Skonctuedt

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